This is the final post in our series of posts on AARE’s education priorities for the 2025 federal election. Today’s posts are about widening participation and nurturing aspirations.
When we think about pathways between spaces or places, our imagination often conjures up straight or linear routes that effectively moves someone from ‘point A’ to ‘point B’. Imaginings about educational pathways are no different. There remains an unspoken expectation that the ‘ideal’ student will move from school to university seamlessly, study full-time. The ‘ideal’ student prioritises studies over all other activities and move efficiently through the system and into employability. But this idyll of the ‘turbo’ student is simply that: an idyll. The pathways into and through university can be highly disjointed. The material realities of life often significantly impact on educational decision making.
For those of us who work in the higher education sector, we have probably witnessed the very complex or circuitous paths taken through university. The convoluted nature of university pathways is statistically evidenced by the diversity in rates of completion. The most recent data reports that after 4 years of study (the average full-time duration of a degree) only 40.9% of all university students had successfully graduated with 37.39% still enrolled.
After school: dipping in and out
After 6 years, completion rates had increased to 61.77% with a significant percentage (12.88%) still enrolled, at nine years of enrollment nearly 70% had completed with 4.5% still enrolled (Australian Department of Education, 2023). We also know that learners frequently dip in and out of study. In 2023, 20% of domestic students deferred or departed university – that is 1 in 5 students choose to either leave or ‘pause’ their studies.
Despite these statistics, our understanding of learner pathways remains very limited. In Australia, we still do not have a way to comprehensively map the entry and exit points that our learners take. Once they leave university, there is currently no reliable and universally available pathway data to evidence future educational participation. This is a significant problem. In my own research with first-in-family university students, I have been repeatedly struck by the ‘messiness’ of these educational journeys.
An impossible destination
A project funded by the Australian Research Council highlighted how first in family learners (n= 375) reflected upon their own educational biographies, describing pathways that were both circuitous and meandering in nature. Many of these learners had left school early or had experienced absences from formal learning environments due to ill-health, poverty, or family caring responsibilities. Like the participants in the recent Aspirations Longitudinal Study, attending university was often ‘barely imaginable’ for many (Gore et al., 2023, p. 9). Some learners in my research indicated how university was regarded as an impossible destination for people ‘like’ them, as Mahalia explained:
‘University was probably something that I always wanted to do. When you haven’t got people that have been there before, it’s that whole stigma of “What do you want to do that for”, because it’s out of the norm so there’s not much encouragement…’
Mahalia (First-in Family, 43, Final Year B. Social Work)
The desire to attend university was similarly often crushed before even having the chance to mature, as Bailie highlighted:
‘‘When you are relatively consistently told that with your demographic, your background, you’re specifically more likely to fail it sort of sets up that whole culture of low expectations.’ (Bailie, First-in Family, 26, B. Arts/Law)
Several attempts
Confidence was a big issue for these learners and frequently it took several attempts at university study before individuals felt capable of persisting. Without a family tradition of attending university, learners described difficulty in gaining an understanding of the ‘inner’ workings of the system.
For example, Bradley, in the third year of an Arts Degree, reflected how his university attendance was ‘difficult because I don’t have that ultimate level of understanding at home or within a family circle’ (Bradley, First in Family, 20, B. Arts). This gap in understanding could result in a much lower sense of belonging, or ‘less stickiness’ to the university setting, and as a result thoughts of leaving can consistently pervade university careers.
This is not a new problem. Over twenty years ago, Robinson (2004) pointed out the need for a longitudinal focus on the ‘educational “process” of student progression’ highlighting the lack of understanding about the ‘pathways’ that students ‘take through their courses’ (p.2). This continues to be the case. In Australia, and other countries, there is an ongoing focus on single points of progression, rather than examining the continuity of this enrolment throughout the student life-course.
A radical overhaul
To address this issue, we need a radical overhaul of understandings about university progression. Firstly, degrees should not be marketed and messaged to students in terms of a time-bounded commitment, a four-year degree remains a timeframe that is both normalised and assumed for commencing students. However, data has repeatedly indicated that concluding a degree within this timeframe is simply not achievable for many cohorts.
Instead, we need degrees designed with fluidity in mind, including the provision of nested qualifications that enable learners to depart in an ‘orderly and low cost’ manner. Having multiple departure points also provides the opportunity to slowly build confidence, the decision to leave early not understood as a deficit or problem but rather an accepted solution to personal circumstances or contexts.
Place-based pathways
Equally, the sector needs to foreground place-based pathways to allow seamless and circular movements between local educational providers. This includes shifting away from a narrow vision of pathways that assumes a one-way direction between VET and HE, instead encouraging and supporting multiple entry and exit points.
This pattern of attendance is simply more reflective of the actual lived realities of our learners. Finally, to achieve this a national (or international) system of recognition of prior learning (RPL) is needed. The current system remains state based and is somewhat ad-hoc, adding to the complexity of managing this pathway for learners and their families.
As universities shift inexorably into the ‘post-Accord’ environment, the need to embrace the circularity and ‘zig-zag’ nature of educational pathways becomes paramount, particularly if we are to retain and support learners from more diverse backgrounds.

Sarah O’Shea is a distinguished professor, acting pro-vice chancellor, research and governance and dean, graduate research at Charles Sturt University, a Churchill Fellow, principal fellow of the Higher Education Academy and has just completed an ARC Discovery Project exploring the persistence behaviours of first in family students. She is also a member of the ARC College of Experts